Despite the huge success of deep neural networks (NNs), finding good mechanisms for quantifying their prediction uncertainty is still an open problem. Bayesian neural networks are one of the most popular approaches to uncertainty quantification. On the other hand, it was recently shown that ensembles of NNs, which belong to the class of mixture models, can be used to quantify prediction uncertainty. In this paper, we build upon these two approaches. First, we increase the mixture model's flexibility by replacing the fixed mixing weights by an adaptive, input-dependent distribution (specifying the probability of each component) represented by NNs, and by considering uncountably many mixture components. The resulting class of models can be seen as the continuous counterpart to mixture density networks and is therefore referred to as compound density networks (CDNs). We employ both maximum likelihood and variational Bayesian inference to train CDNs, and empirically show that they yield better uncertainty estimates on out-of-distribution data and are more robust to adversarial examples than the previous approaches.

We introduce HyperGAN, a generative network that learns to generate all the weights within a deep neural network. HyperGAN employs a novel mixer to transform independent Gaussian noise into a latent space where dimensions are correlated, which is then transformed to generate weights in each layer of a deep neural network. We utilize an architecture that bears resemblance to generative adversarial networks, but we evaluate the likelihood of samples with a classification loss. This is equivalent to minimizing the KL-divergence between the generated network parameter distribution and an unknown true parameter distribution. We apply HyperGAN to classification, showing that HyperGAN can learn to generate parameters which solve the MNIST and CIFAR-10 datasets with competitive performance to fully supervised learning, while learning a rich distribution of effective parameters. We also show that HyperGAN can also provide better uncertainty than standard ensembles. This is evaluated by the ability of HyperGAN generated ensembles to detect out of distribution data as well as adversarial examples. We see that in addition to being highly accurate on inlier data, HyperGAN can provide reasonable uncertainty estimates.

In industrial machine learning pipelines, data often arrive in parts. Particularly in the case of deep neural networks, it may be too expensive to train the model from scratch each time, so one would rather use a previously learned model and the new data to improve performance. However, deep neural networks are prone to getting stuck in a suboptimal solution when trained on only new data as compared to the full dataset. Our work focuses on a continuous learning setup where the task is always the same and new parts of data arrive sequentially. We apply a Bayesian approach to update the posterior approximation with each new piece of data and find this method to outperform the traditional approach in our experiments.